Video Game Reviews 4 You

Posted September 9, 2011 by James Brightman

Game sales took a major plunge in August, dropping 23% year-over-year as software sales in particular really faltered, declining by 34% in a month without the usual Madden spike. While some of the blame can be attributed to the Madden delay, EEDAR's Jesse Divnich sees much bigger problems for the traditional retail side of the business.

Divnich, providing IndustryGamers with exclusive post-NPD report commentary, observed a pretty serious trend in the traditional games industry so far in 2011:  "To date, there have been 18% fewer physical SKUs released compared to the same time period in 2010.  In addition, there has been a 27% reduction in 80+ rated physical games, year-to-date. I have to admit, I am concerned for the traditional physical gaming market as we enter the crucial holiday season."

"It wouldn't be a far stretch to assume that this increase in non-traditional gaming playtime is coming at the cost of the traditional physical experience."

This holiday season is looking fantastic for core gamers with blockbuster titles in the pipeline, including Modern Warfare 3, Battlefield 3, Gears of War 3, Uncharted 3, Resistance 3 (it's all about the threes), Skyrim, Zelda: Skyward Sword, and more. But will there be enough cash to go around? "The remainder of the year looks positive for traditional video games as the quality of AAA titles this holiday season is overwhelming, maybe too overwhelming," admits Divnich.

And what if gamers are holding back, saving some money, and spending more time with cheaper mobile offerings?

That could be the case, if you ask Divnich. "Our industry thrives on momentum and habit.  The first thing a gamer says when they finish a great title is, 'What can I play next?' and when the answer is nothing that consumer begins to look elsewhere to satisfy their entertainment needs.  From our consumer surveys and market analysis, the level of activity occurring in non-traditional gaming markets such as mobile, tablet, and social have skyrocketed over the last 3 months."  

He continued, "We've done the surveys and we know that over 51% of traditional console owners have engaged with mobile and social games over the last 6 months. It wouldn't be a far stretch to assume that this increase in non-traditional gaming playtime is coming at the cost of the traditional physical experience.  The scary question is whether these consumers have simply gone dormant, waiting for the next big Xbox 360 game, or if we have lost some, even if it is a relatively small percentage, to these non-traditional gaming markets forever."

In the end, while EEDAR is concerned about the market, Divnich remains mostly optimistic that sales will turn around for Q4, even if the industry packed too much into the holiday period.

"Personally, I've always felt our industry has learned that the core gaming engagement isn't seasonal, in which strong AAA core targeted titles can thrive at any point of the year, but looking at this year's lopsided release schedule, I have to wonder if we are straying a little too far off our own beaten path. That said, I remain positive about this industry and truly believe that traditional gaming will recover this holiday season, but it would be fair to say that I and many others will be anxiously sweating it as we enter this period."

James Brightman has been covering the games industry since 2003 and has been an avid gamer ever since the days of Atari and Intellivision. He was previously the EIC of GameDaily Biz.

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